Germany is voting in two state elections on Sunday that could carry consequences far beyond their regional borders, as Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces another test of his authority and the far-right Alternative for Germany seeks to turn recent momentum into lasting political power.
Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are choosing new state legislatures on September 20. The contests come only two weeks after the AfD made a major breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt, intensifying debate over Germany’s political direction and the ability of the established parties to contain the party’s rise. Reuters reported Sunday that the results are expected to add pressure on Merz, whose approval ratings have fallen sharply.
The elections are regional, not national, and they will not directly determine who governs Germany. But their timing makes them politically significant. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union is struggling with voter dissatisfaction over economic conditions, energy and housing costs, pensions, taxes and healthcare reforms, while the AfD has expanded far beyond its origins as a fringe eurosceptic party.
A close contest in Germany’s northeast
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania may deliver the day’s most closely watched result. The state is governed by Social Democratic premier Manuela Schwesig, whose party has narrowed what had previously appeared to be an AfD advantage.
A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll cited by Reuters on Friday placed the SPD at 37% and the AfD at 36%, effectively making the contest too close to treat as settled before ballots are counted. The Left Party stood at 9%, while the Greens were at the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament. Merz’s CDU was polling at only 6%, leaving it at risk of one of its weakest state-level results. Reuters reported the polling figures ahead of voting.
The AfD advocates tougher immigration policies, including deporting people who have no legal right to remain in Germany, and favors restoring energy ties with Russia. Other major German parties continue to reject coalition agreements with it, a strategy commonly described as a political “firewall.”
That means winning the largest share of votes would not necessarily put the AfD into government. Coalition arithmetic after the election could be just as important as the first-place result.
Berlin’s housing crisis shapes a different race
The picture in Berlin is different. Housing affordability has dominated much of the campaign in a city where rents and the cost of living have become major political issues.
Reuters cited polling that put the Left Party at 22%, the CDU at 20%, the AfD at 18%, the Greens at 15% and the SPD at 12%. Those numbers could threaten the CDU’s control of the mayor’s office while also showing how fragmented the capital’s political landscape has become.
Berlin’s election also expands participation to younger voters. According to the Berlin election authority, 2,487,318 people are eligible to vote for the House of Representatives, including 16- and 17-year-old German citizens for the first time. More than 823,000 voting certificates had been issued before election day, equivalent to 33.9% of eligible voters.
Why the vote matters beyond Germany
The broader question is whether Germany’s traditional political center can stabilize after repeated electoral shocks.
The AfD’s rise has forced Germany into a difficult debate over immigration, economic stagnation, relations with Russia and the limits of political cooperation. The Associated Press reported that the party is expected to make further gains in Sunday’s elections, although it has no realistic route to power in Berlin and faces a stronger incumbent challenge in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
For Merz, the stakes are particularly high. He became chancellor last year promising to revive Europe’s largest economy, but his government has struggled to improve the national mood. The poor CDU showing in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month intensified internal debate about his leadership, although senior party figures have publicly continued to support him.
Economic pressures are adding to the political strain. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where many residents depend on cars, higher fuel costs have become especially sensitive. Merz announced a relief package on Friday that included tax reductions on gasoline and diesel, according to Reuters.
The result will not answer every question
Sunday’s elections will provide an important measure of voter sentiment, but they should not be read as a direct forecast of Germany’s next federal election. Regional contests have their own candidates, coalitions and local concerns, and Germany’s next federal election is scheduled for 2029. The Federal Returning Officer confirms that both Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania vote on September 20, 2026.
Still, the results could influence how Germany’s national parties respond to the AfD’s continued growth. A strong showing for the party would intensify arguments over whether the existing firewall is containing it or leaving voters more polarized. A stronger-than-expected result for the SPD, CDU, Left or Greens could point to different regional strategies for competing with it.
Polls close at 6 p.m. local time. Berlin’s election authority says counting will begin immediately afterward, with the first online results expected once roughly 10% of votes have been counted and a preliminary citywide result expected early Monday. Official election officials have outlined the count and publication schedule.
Whatever the final numbers, Sunday’s vote is another sign that Germany’s political landscape is changing rapidly. The immediate question is who governs Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The larger one is how Germany’s mainstream parties respond to an electorate that is increasingly fragmented and dissatisfied.
